Northwest Region Research Articles

An interpretable model for landslide susceptibility assessment based on Optuna hyperparameter optimization and Random Forest

This study proposed an interpretable model that combines Random Forest (RF), Optuna hyperparameter optimization, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to achieve optimal landslide susceptibility evaluation and provide explanations in the northwest region of Yunnan Province in China. First, an inventory of 4447 landslides and 23 related factors was considered for the landslide susceptibility assessment. Subsequently, a hyperparameter-optimized RF model was developed using the Optuna framework and the training dataset to generate landslide susceptibility maps. The performance of the models were evaluated using accuracy (ACC), precision (PPV), recall (TPR), F1-score (F1), and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) based on the Receiver Operating Characteristic. Furthermore, the interpretability of the model was enhanced through the implementation of SHAP. The proposed model demonstrated outstanding performance on the test set, achieving an ACC of 0.7792, PPV of 0.7448, TPR of 0.8769, F1 of 0.8055, and an AUC of 0.8387. The interpretability analysis revealed that elevation, population density, distance from roads, and normalized difference vegetation index were the primary factors influencing landslide occurrences in the study area. This study provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating landslide susceptibility in specific regions and offers invaluable insights for the prevention and management of landslide disasters.

Spatiotemporal coupling analysis of surface water and groundwater in Tibet based on multi-source sensors

Abstract. Lakes and groundwater are two crucial components of the global terrestrial water cycle, collectively forming a vital network for Earth's water resources. However, in the Tibetan region, the spatiotemporal relationship between lakes and groundwater and their impact on the local hydrological cycle remain inadequately understood. Satellite remote sensing serves as an effective observational tool, enabling comprehensive investigation and analysis of surface lakes and groundwater in Tibet with high spatial resolution. Therefore, this study integrates Landsat and Cryosat-2 satellite data to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of surface lake extents and water levels in Tibet. Additionally, combining Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations with the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) model data, we quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal variations in groundwater storage and its correlation with lake water. The results indicate that: 1) Rivers and lakes in Tibet are mainly located in the central and northwest regions, displaying noticeable intra-annual variations; 2) Substantial lagged relationships exist between groundwater storage and lake water levels and areas, revealing that lakes contribute significantly to groundwater replenishment, especially in the Ngari prefecture and Lhokha prefecture. This study comprehensively utilizes multi-source remote sensing data to dynamically monitor surface and groundwater in Tibet, providing robust support for a better understanding of the interaction between groundwater and surface water.

Quantitative analysis of the impact of climate variability and human activities on grassland productivity of the Qilian Mountain National Park, China.

To quantitatively analyze the impact of climate variability and human activities on grassland productivity of China's Qilian Mountain National Park, this study used Carnegic-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and Integrated Vegetation model improved by the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) to assess the trends of grassland NPP from 2000 to 2015, the residual trend analysis method was used to quantify the impact of human activities and climate change on the grassland based on the NPP changes. The actual grassland NPP accumulation mainly occurred in June, July and August (autumn); the actual NPP showed a fluctuating upward trend with an average increase of 2.2 g C·m-2 a-1, while the potential NPP increase of 1.6 g C·m-2 a-1 and human-induced NPP decreased of 0.5 g C·m-2 a-1. The annual temperature showed a fluctuating upward trend with an average increase of 0.1°C 10a-1, but annual precipitation showed a fluctuating upward trend with an average annual increase of 1.3 mm a-1 from 2000 to 2015. The area and NPP of grassland degradation caused by climate variability was significantly greater than that caused by human activities and mainly distributed in the northwest and central regions, but area and NPP of grassland restored caused by human activities was significantly greater than that caused by climate variability and mainly distributed in the southeast regions. In conclusion, grassland in Qilian Mountain National Park showed a trend of degradation based on distribution area, but showed a trend of restoration based on actual NPP. Climate variability was the main cause of grassland degradation in the northwestern region of study area, and restoration of grassland in the eastern region was the result of the combined effects of human activities and climate variability. Under global climate change, the establishment of Qilian Mountain National Park was of great significance to the grassland's protection and the grasslands ecological restoration that have been affected by humans.

Analyzing the influence of university support and entrepreneurial culture on solar entrepreneurial intentions among Indian students

The involvement of students in entrepreneurial activities related to solar energy has the potential to have a major impact on expanding energy access. Nevertheless, there is an absence of research on the dynamics and knowledge of solar entrepreneurship, specifically from an Indian perspective. The main aim of this study is to highlight the significance of solar energy entrepreneurship and its capacity to motivate and encourage university students towards entrepreneurship, thereby fostering sustainable development. The study intends to analyze several individual-level characteristics that influence university learners' intentions to engage in solar entrepreneurship. The goal of this study is to shed light on how students' career choices in the field of solar entrepreneurship are influenced by their personal passion, self-efficacy, personality traits, and social norms. A stratified random selection technique was employed to gather a representative sample of 279 university students who are currently enrolled in both public and private universities situated in the northwest region of India. The study employed partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) to examine the relationship between individual-level factors and entrepreneurial attitude. The analysis indicated that all individual-level factors, except entrepreneurial passion, were significant predictors of entrepreneurial attitude. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated a positive association between student entrepreneurial attitudes and solar entrepreneurial intentions. The research also examines the managerial implications, limitations, and future scope of the research.

Vitamin D levels and its influencing factors in pregnant women in mainland China: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Maternal vitamin D deficiency is a prevalent public health issue worldwide. While isolated reports from certain cities in China have highlighted the existence of maternal vitamin D deficiency, no nationwide investigation has been conducted on this topic. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis and systematic review to examine the prevalence and associated influencing factors of maternal vitamin D deficiency in mainland China. This study aims to provide a theoretical foundation for future prevention and supplementation strategies for maternal vitamin D. We retrieved relevant Chinese and English literature on the status of maternal vitamin D deficiency in mainland China from databases such as CNKI, Wanfang Data, VIP, CBM, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and PubMed. The literature search and database construction were conducted until September 8, 2023. Data were extracted and synthesized following PRISMA guidelines.After literature screening and quality assessment, we performed meta-analysis, sensitivity analysis, and identified publication bias using RevMan 5.3 software. A total of 26 articles were reviewed, involving 128,820 pregnant women. Among them, 108,768 had vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency, resulting in a prevalence of 84% (95% CI: 81%~88%). Subgroup analysis revealed the highest prevalence of vitamin D deficiency or insufficiency among pregnant women in mainland China to be in the northwest region (94%, 95% CI: 94%~95%). Furthermore, the highest prevalence was observed during the winter and spring seasons (80%, 95% CI: 77%~83%) and in the early stages of pregnancy (93%, 95% CI: 90%~95%). Significant statistical differences (P<0.05) were found among these three subgroups. No publication bias was detected, and sensitivity analysis indicated the stability of the meta-analysis outcome. This study provides evidence of the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency or insufficiency among pregnant women in mainland China. To improve the overall health and well-being of the population, relevant health authorities should develop policies aimed at alleviating this phenomenon.

Rainfall Potential and Consequences on Structural Soil Degradation of the Most Important Agricultural Region of Mexico

This study investigates the historical variability in annual average precipitation in the northwest region of Mexico, aiming to evaluate the cumulative impact of precipitation on soil degradation and associated risks posed by rainfall. Despite being known as “The Agricultural Heart of Mexico”, the region’s soil has experienced significant damage to its granulometric structure due to unpredictable rainfall patterns attributed to climate change. Sixteen historical series of average annual rainfall were analyzed as stationary stochastic processes for spectral analysis. The results revealed exponential decay curves in each radial spectrum, indicating a linear relationship between frequency and amplitude. These curves identified initial impulses correlated with moments of severity for structural damages caused by rainfall-induced degradation. The degradation process, exacerbated by water stress, accelerates, as evidenced by maps illustrating approximately 75% soil damage. In the context of climate change and the uncertainty surrounding soil responses to extreme meteorological events, understanding this phenomenon becomes crucial. Recognizing the dynamic nature of soil responses to environmental stressors is essential for effective soil management. Emphasizing the need to employ numerical processes tailored to new environmental considerations related to observed soil damages is crucial for sustainable soil management practices in any region.

Evaluating urban development in China's resource-based cities: a new perspective using nighttime light data

ABSTRACT Understanding the urbanization and transformation trajectories of resource-based cities (RBCs) is pivotal for China’s sustainable development goals. This study introduces a novel regression-based algorithm for assessing urbanization patterns. We delineated the urban boundaries of 335 cities and employed time-series nighttime light data from 2001 to 2020, shifting the analysis from a pixel-scale to an urban-scale perspective. Our analysis reveals distinct disparities within the 125 RBCs when compared to the national average, leading to their categorization. The key findings include: (1) Within Forest and Coal RBCs, numerous areas have stabilized after experiencing contraction. Geographically, a significant number of RBCs in the Northeast, North, and Northwest regions are experiencing or have experienced substantial urban shrinkage. The developmental status of RBCs exhibits a spatial positive correlation. (2) Although the government categorized RBCs based on their development level in 2013, findings suggest that this classification may no longer accurately reflect the current development status of RBCs in the context of urbanization. (3) Utilizing spectral clustering, we categorized RBCs into five types, identified 10 RBCs undergoing shrinkage and 30 cities trending towards stabilization post-shrinkage. This research offers a refined evaluative method for urbanization, providing insights beneficial for policy-making concerning RBCs’ sustainable growth..

Experimental study and performance enhancement of a novel micro heat pipe photovoltaic/thermal system in a cold region

The photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) system, which utilizes solar energy to generate electricity and thermal energy, has significant potential in the northwest region of China, an area with abundant solar irradiation. To improve the performance of the micro heat pipe PV/T system, the study analyzed the system's thermal collection efficiency and power conversion efficiency using numerical simulation of the PV/T panel. The model incorporated double-layer glass and replaces water with nanofluid as the working medium inside the airfoil heat exchanger. The average relative error of the model was 0.9 %. In experiments conducted in Lanzhou, located in the northwest region of China, the power conversion efficiency reached its peak of 12.64 % during winter, while the thermal collection efficiency reached its maximum of 39.45 % during summer. Moreover, utilizing R141b as the working fluid in the micro heat pipe resulted in an average increase of 7.14 % in thermal collection efficiency and an average increase of 4.46 % in power conversion efficiency compared to acetone. This indicated that R141b outperforms acetone in terms of system performance. The study observed that the highest overall efficiency is achieved when the air layer thickness of the double-layer glass is 11 mm. The thermal resistance between the inner wall of the airfoil heat exchanger and the water in the PV/T components was the highest, reaching 48.85 %. Therefore, it was necessary to use nanofluids instead of water to reduce the thermal resistance of PV/T modules. The system performance remained relatively stable when the volume fraction reaches 8 %. At this volume fraction, the Al2O3-water nanofluid, Cu-water nanofluid, and Ag-water nanofluid increased the power conversion efficiency by 0.34 %, 0.72 %, and 0.77 % respectively. Moreover, they improved the thermal collection efficiency by 1.16 %, 2.69 %, and 2.78 % respectively. The micro heat pipe PV/T system was utilized for winter heating of farmers in Lanzhou and Jinchang cities. It maintained an indoor temperature of over 16 ℃ throughout the day, thus meeting the indoor heating standards.

Morphological diversity of Ganoderma species and its host trees in Mezam Division, Northwest Region, Cameroon

Morphological diversity of Ganoderma species and its host trees in Mezam Division, Northwest Region, Cameroon

Судогда – новый сорт озимой тритикале для кормопроизводства

Abstract. The purpose of the study is to evaluate a new variety of winter triticale Sudogda according to economic and biological characteristics and properties. The variety was created by the method of mass selection of highly productive plants resistant to lodging, brown and stem rusts from the breeding line L6, obtained from the Voronezh Federal Agrarian Scientific Center named after V. V. Dokuchaev. The selection of material and its study were carried out in the soil and climatic conditions of the Central Non-Chernozem zone according to the generally accepted scheme of the breeding process for winter crops. Results. A detailed morphological description is given and the results of the study of the new variety Sudogda in competitive variety testing on light soddy-podzolic, slightly acidic soils with a low content of organic matter (1.3 %) are presented. The average yield of the Sudogda variety was 4.68 t/ha (+0.54 t/ha to the Doktrina 110 standard), the maximum yield in the favorable year of 2017 on soddy-podzolic soils reached 5.5 t/ha, on gray forest soils 6.5 t/ha, the minimum – in the dry year of 2016 3.5 t/ha (+0.47 t/ha to the standard). The variety is characterized by high winter hardiness (95 %), resistance to lodging (5.0 points), drought resistance (4.5 points). During the years of variety testing, the variety showed tolerance to brown and stem rusts, and was moderately affected by leaf septoria at the standard level. It is distinguished by high indicators of the physical qualities of grain: the weight of 1000 grains is on average 40.4 g, the nature of the grain is 704 g/l, the vitreousness is 79 %. The protein content in the grain is 15 %, which is 0.5 % higher than the standard. The variety is intended for use in grain fodder. It is recommended for cultivation on all types of soils, but tolerates light slightly acidic soddy-podzolic sandy loamy soils better than other varieties. The new variety Sudogda has been included in the State Register of Breeding Achievements of the Russian Federation since 2021 and approved for use in the North-West region, where it showed a maximum yield of 6.96 t/ha. Scientific novelty. A new plastic, mid-season, stress-resistant variety of winter triticale has been created, which is distinguished by the ability to form a high grain yield on light soddy-podzolic, slightly acidic soils of the North-West region of the Russian Federation.

Compound successive dry-hot and wet extremes in China with global warming and urbanization

Global warming has accelerated the interregional hydrological cycle, resulting in a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events worldwide. These events often involve a combination of spatial and temporal factors, giving rise to compound events. Among them are rapid transitions from dry and hot conditions to wet (DHW) events, which can have more severe impacts on human societies and ecosystems than individual extreme events. Urbanization not only heightens the likelihood of disasters but also exacerbates the exposure of affected populations. However, there has been insufficient attention given to understanding the connections between these successive compound events and the heightened risks posed by the increasing urbanization. In this study, we used bias-corrected daily precipitation and maximum temperature data simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model, along with historical and future daily runoff data simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We systematically investigated the spatiotemporal changes (i.e., frequency, duration, intensity, and compound probability) in DHW events in China during the upper historical period (1979–2014) and under two medium and high emission scenarios (2015–2100) − Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Furthermore, we examined how extreme runoff responds to variations in maximum temperature and daily precipitation during DHW events. We also evaluated the potential population and urban exposure to DHW events using dynamic future population and urban expansion data to assess the potential risks. Our results indicate that the multi-model ensemble predicts varying spatial patterns of future DHW events under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The frequency and duration of these events are expected to decrease by approximately 20–25% in the Northwest region under both scenarios. At the same time, the middle and lower plains of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins experience increased occurrence, broader geographical impact, and higher DHW event intensity alongside urban expansion and population growth in these regions. Specifically, event intensity is anticipated to increase by a factor of approximately 7–11. Temporally, we expect short-duration, high-intensity DHW events to occur in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins around 2023, 2038, and 2058, respectively. The primary driver for the future rise in population exposure to DHW events is the expected increase in event frequency in the middle and lower plains of the Yangtze and Yellow River basins, concurrent with population growth in these regions. Under the medium emission scenario, the total exposed population to DHW events in China is predicted to be 1.61 times higher than the historical baseline. In contrast, the high-emission scenario estimates a total population of 2.41 times higher than the historical baseline period. Most of the DHW events occurred in regions that exhibit a positive dependence between high temperature and high runoff events, serving as the primary driver of DHW events. Urbanization has a positive impact on DHW events, with the effect under high emissions being approximately 30% higher than during the historical base period. Additionally, it is indicated that future DHW events will exhibit higher sensitivity to global warming, with intensity projected to increase approximately fourfold and the exposed population to rise by about 1.5 times for every 1 °C of global warming. This research enhances our understanding of forecasting future compound hydrometeorological extreme events under different scenarios and provides insight into the role of climate change and urbanization in shaping these events in China.

Assessing the Neurosurgical Capacity in Nigeria Using the Modified Neuro-PIPES Tool

Like many low- and-middle-income countries in Africa, documented assessment of the neurosurgical workforce, equipment, infrastructure, and scope of service delivery in Nigeria is lacking. This study aimed to assess the capacity for the delivery of neurosurgical services in Nigeria. An 83-question survey was disseminated to neurosurgeons and residents in Nigeria. We report the findings from the capacity assessment section of the survey, which used the modified neurological-PIPES (personnel, infrastructure, procedures, equipment, and supplies) (MN-PIPES) tool to evaluate the availability of neurosurgical personnel, infrastructure, procedures, equipment, and supplies. A comparative analysis was done using the domain and total MN-PIPES scores and MN-PIPES index. The national average MN-PIPES score and index were 176.4 and 9.8, respectively. Overall, the southwest and northwest regions had the highest scores and frequently had high subscores. The survey respondents reported that the main challenges impeding neurosurgery service delivery were a lack of adjunctive supplies (75.2%), a dearth of diagnostic and interventional equipment (72.4%), and an absence of a dedicated intensive care unit (72.4%). The availability of workforce, infrastructure, equipment, and supplies needed to provide optimal neurosurgical care is uneven in many institutions in Nigeria. Although major strides have been made in recent years, targeted collaborative interventions at local, national, regional, and international levels will further improve neurosurgical service delivery in Nigeria and will have positive ripple effects on the rest of the healthcare system.

Lake ice break-up in Greenland: timing and spatiotemporal variability

Abstract. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission with its high temporal and spatial resolution allows for an automated detection of lake ice break-up timings from surface backscatter differences across south (S), southwest (SW), and northwest (NW) Greenland (&lt;71° N latitude) during the period 2017 to 2021. Median break-up dates of the 563 studied lakes range between 8 June and 10 July, with the earliest being in 2019 and the latest in 2018. There is a strong correlation between the break-up date and elevation, while a weak relationship with latitude and lake area could be observed. Lake-specific median break-up timings for 2017–2021 increase (i.e., are later) by 3 d per 100 m elevation gain. When assuming an earlier break-up timing of 8 d which corresponds to the observed median variability of ±8 d, the introduced excess energy due to a changing surface albedo from snow-covered ice surface to water translates to melting 0.4 ± 0.1 m thick ice at the melting point or heating up a water depth down to 35 ± 3 m by 1 K across the entire surface area of each respective lake. Upscaling the results to 100 486 lakes across the S, SW, and NW regions, which correspond to 64.5 % of all lakes or 62.1 % of the overall lake area in Greenland, yields an estimate of 1.8 × 106 TJ additional energy input. This translates to melting 5.8 Gt ice at the melting point or warming 432.3 Gt water by 1 K.

Banditry’s Toll On Tomorrow: Exploring the Consequences on Youth in Northwest Nigeria

In recent years, the northwest region of Nigeria has experienced a surge in banditry activities, leading to profound repercussions on local communities. This paper aims at examining banditry’s toll on tomorrow, with a focus on the consequences on the youth in northwest Nigeria. The method adopted for this research is the qualitative method of investigation which tends to emphasize the description, meaning, and understanding of the phenomenon being studied. It relies on questioning and observation in the effort to discover or generate a profound understanding of the phenomenon or situation under investigation. This qualitative research uses a paradigm interpretive approach (naturalistic), which tries to understand the phenomenon from the subjective experiences of individuals. The study discovered that banditry has multiple consequences (economical, political, social, cultural, religious, etc) on the youth in Northwest Nigeria. The paper recommends that, despite the challenges posed by banditry, efforts can be made to promote resilience and develop coping strategies among youths in the Northwest, Nigeria. This may involve implementing psycho-social support programs, trauma-informed teaching practices, and community-based interventions to address the psychological impact. 

P081 Out-patient management of gout in secondary care: Results from the North West regional audit

Abstract Background/Aims Recommendations for gout management have significantly evolved as outlined by the latest National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR), British Society for Rheumatology (BSR) and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) guidelines, with increased emphasis being placed on optimising cardiovascular risk. This regional audit aimed to assess concordance with these guidelines within rheumatology outpatient settings in the North West region of England. Methods New or follow-up patients with gout, presenting to a rheumatology outpatient setting within the Greater Manchester and Lancashire area over a five-week period between 1/3/23 and 7/4/23 were included. We collated data on demographics, co-morbidity assessment including cardiovascular risk, prescribing of febuxostat in major cardiovascular disease, diuretic use and advice, setting of treat-to-target levels, use of cardiovascular risk prediction tools and subsequent follow up arrangements. For new patients, collected data also included referral reason, and prescription recommendations for first-line urate-lowering therapy (ULT) and co-prescriptions for flare prophylaxis. Results Ninety-two patients (mean age 60 years, 80% male) were included from 13 rheumatology departments. Twenty-three patients were new referrals. Sixty-seven patients (73%) had ≥ 1 relevant comorbidity; hypertension being the most common (55%). Twenty (22%) patients were on diuretics. Twelve (55%) of these patients had a diagnosis of hypertension without heart failure; none received recommendations to reduce or stop diuretics. In line with current guidelines, no patient with major cardiovascular disease was treated with febuxostat. Treat-to-target levels were agreed in 49 (57%) applicable patients. Cardiovascular prediction tools were only calculated or known in three (3%) patients. However, clinic data collected would have allowed a risk assessment calculation in 13 (14%) patients. Sixteen (17%) patients audited had no planned follow-up. Compared to NICE guidelines, 18 (78%) new patients reviewed in clinic were referred appropriately to rheumatology services. Twenty-two (96%) new patients referred were eligible to start ULT, of which 15 (75%) were started on a NICE/ EULAR recommended first-line ULT treatment (14 patients on allopurinol including 11 patients with no major cardiovascular disease, one patient on febuxostat). Eleven (79%) patients started on allopurinol were initiated on a low dose (50-100mg), as recommended by NICE and the BSR. Ten (67%) patients of those initiated on ULT were also prescribed prophylactic colchicine. Two additional patients were prescribed NSAIDs with PPI cover and one patient was prescribed oral steroids without PPI cover. Conclusion Most new patients were referred and prescribed first-line ULT treatment appropriately, often with colchicine prophylaxis. Uptake of febuxostat as first-line therapy was limited. Cardiovascular risk assessment was rarely done; further work exploring barriers to undertaking these assessments in rheumatology clinics is likely to improve both patient care and guideline compliance. Disclosure L. Gould: Other; L.G. has received conference fees from Eli Lilly. A. Richards: None. L. Gray: Other; L.G. has received travel and conference fees from Eli Lilly. M. Badarulla: Other; M.B. has received conference fees from Eli Lilly. L. Mercer: Other; L.M. has received conference fees from Nordic Pharma and UCB. R. Farid: None. R. Heaton: Consultancies; R.H. has received consultancy fees from Galapagos. Honoraria; R.H. has received speaker honorarium from Abbvie and Nordic. Other; R.H. has received conference fees from UCB. M. Al-Attar: None. M. Whitehead: None. S. Kamath: None. L. Teh: None. A. Odekunle: None. C.A. Sharp: None. A. Babiker: None. S. Hopping: None. A. Oldroyd: None. K. Lazarewicz: None. C. Saleh: None. S. Horton: None. D. Roy: Honoraria; D.R. has an honorary University of Manchester research assistant contract. A. Opeseyitan: None. D. Das: None. S. Varughese: None. D. Yidana: None. S. Wig: None. J. Bluett: Grants/research support; J.B. has received a research grant award from Pfizer. Other; J.B. has received travel/conference fees from UCB, Fresenius Kabi, Pfizer and Eli Lilly.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, platelet to lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte to monocyte ratio and Systemic Inflammatory Index in sexually transmitted diseases.

Hematologic biomarkers of inflammation may serve as valuable adjuncts in clinical practice, aiding in several aspects such as differential diagnosis, prognostic assessment for patient stratification and monitoring the efficacy of antimicrobial therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR), Platelet to Lymphocyte Ratio (PLR), Lymphocyte to Monocyte Ratio (LMR), and Systemic Inflammatory Index (SII) in predicting bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STI). This prospective study was conducted in the north-west region of Romania and included patients from several medical special units such as dermatology, obstetrics-gynecology, urology, and general practice. The study group comprised patients with a high suspicion of STI, while the control group consisted of healthy subjects. Quantitative data are presented as medians (interquartile ranges). The median values of SII, NLR, and SIRI were higher in the group of subjects with sexually transmitted diseases compared to the control group [604.06 (432.36 - 880.02) vs. 556.89 (388.63 - 874.19); 2.61 (1.57 - 3.3) vs. 2.29 (1.66 - 3.26); and 0.95 (0.53 - 1.52) vs. 0.89 (0.67 - 1.34)]. Regarding PLR, the median values were lower in the group of subjects with sexually transmitted diseases compared to the control group [138.1 (99.19 - 169.6) vs. 140.65 (117 - 190.32)]. As for LMR, the median values were equal between the two groups [4.64 (3.74 - 6.11) vs. 4.64 (3.75 - 5.45)]. Nevertheless, the differences did not reach the significance level. Our study suggests that inflammatory biomarkers might aid in detecting bacterial STIs, but their significance was not statistically confirmed. Further research on alternative laboratory tests is needed for improved STI diagnosis and management.

Effects of Family Culture and Marital Decisions of the Business Owners on Access to Financing of Very Small Businesses

Purpose: This study seeks to examine the effects of family culture (presence during family meetings, assistance in important family events, and strong family bonds) as well as marital decisions (mutual participation, joint savings decisions, and joint ventures) on access to financing of very small businesses in the North West Region of Cameroon. Methods: The study used a series of exogenous and control variables adapted from the model of Gikonyo, Agwata, &amp; Anyango (2011) who proposed a strategic model for quantitative research. Primary data were collected through convenient sampling from 293 very small business owners in each divisional headquarters of the North West Region of Cameroon. We used the multiple correspondence analysis to construct indexes for family culture, marital decisions as well as access to financing of very small businesses. The hypotheses of the study were then tested using the ordinary least square estimation technique. Results: The results obtained showed in aggregate, a positive and significant effect of family culture and marital decisions on access to financing. More precisely, the coefficients of presence during family meetings, assistance in important family events as well as strong family bonds are positive. These results were statistically significant at 1% level. Implications: This study has significant practical implications on the financial health of very small businesses in the context of developing countries like Cameroon in general and the North West Region of Cameroon in particular plagued by the crisis and COVID-19. The study therefore concluded that if very small business owners can improve on the respect of family cultures and can jointly decide on their financial actions with their spouses, they will have better access to financing, especially in developing countries like Cameroon and more particularly in the North West Region of the country.

Factors associated with the risk of malaria among children: analysis of 2021 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey

BackgroundMalaria remains a burden globally, with the African region accounting for 94% of the overall disease burden and deaths in 2019. It is the major cause of morbidity and mortality among children in Nigeria. Though different environmental factors have been assessed to influence the distribution and transmission of malaria vectors, there is a shortage of information on how they may influence malaria transmission among under-fives in Nigeria.MethodsThis study was based on the secondary data analysis of the Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey 2021. The study sample comprised 10,645 women (aged 15–49) who delivered a child in the 2 years preceding the survey. The study was restricted to under-fives. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with the risk of malaria.ResultsThere was a positive association between the risk of malaria and heard/seen malaria messages in the last 6 months (AOR 1.39, 95% CI 1.19–1.62), houses with walls built using rudimentary materials (AOR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.04–1.83), at least 6 children living in the house (AOR 1.22, 95% CI 1.00–1.49), children being 1 or 2 years old was associated with increased odds (AOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.50–2.34 and AOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.52–2.36), children from households with only treated nets (AOR 1.23, 95% CI 1.04–1.46) and those from the North West or South East regions (AOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.10–2.05 and AOR 1.48, 95% CI 1.01–2.16), respectively. All other predictors were not associated with the risk of malaria.ConclusionThe factors associated with the risk of malaria in this study included sleeping under treated mosquito nets, the age of the children, residing in the northwest and southeast regions, wall construction material, 6 children and above in the household and hearing/seen malaria messages in the last 6 months. Continuous health education and public health interventions, such as the provision of LLITNs, will reduce the risk of malaria and improve the health and well-being of children under 5 years of age.

Meteorological Impacts on Rubber Tree Powdery Mildew and Projections of Its Future Spatiotemporal Pattern

Meteorological conditions play a crucial role in driving outbreaks of rubber tree powdery mildew (RTPM). As the climate warms and techniques improve, rubber cultivation is expanding to higher latitudes, and the changing climate increases the RTPM risk. Rubber plantations on Hainan Island, situated on the northern margin of the tropics, have been selected as a case study to explore the meteorological mechanisms behind RTPM outbreaks quantitatively using a structural equation model, and project current and future RTPM outbreak patterns under different climate change scenarios by building predictive models based on data-driven algorithms. The following results were obtained: (1) days with an average temperature above 20 °C and days with light rain were identified as key meteorological drivers of RTPM using structural equation modeling (R2 = 0.63); (2) the Bayesian-optimized least-squares boosted trees ensemble model accurately predicted the interannual variability in the historical RTPM disease index (R2 = 0.79); (3) currently, due to the increased area of rubber plantations in the central region of Hainan, there is a higher risk of RTPM; and (4) under future climate scenarios, RTPM shows a decreasing trend (at a moderate level), with oscillating and sporadic outbreaks primarily observed in the central and northwest regions. We attribute this to the projected warming and drying trends that are unfavorable for RTPM. Our study is expected to enhance the understanding of the impact of climate change on RTPM, provide a prediction tool, and underscore the significance of the climate-aware production and management of rubber.

Construction of the Ecological Security Pattern in Xishuangbanna Tropical Rainforest Based on Circuit Theory

Urban modernization and economic globalization have led to significant changes in traditional natural landscapes. The unregulated and large-scale expansion of rubber plantations in Xishuangbanna has resulted in water and scenic forests being replaced by rubber forests and the complex rainforest ecosystem being replaced by simple artificial forests. This has resulted in increasingly prominent ecological problems such as soil erosion, regional microclimate changes, and sharp declines in biodiversity. The ecological security pattern is an important way to protect regional ecological sustainability. Taking the tropical rainforest in Xishuangbanna as an example, this study identified ecological sources through the evaluation of the importance of ecosystem services, constructed resistance surfaces through ecological sensitivity evaluation, and used circuit theory to simulate ecological processes in heterogeneous landscapes by calculating “electricity” or “resistance”, thereby identifying ecological corridors and key ecological nodes. The results identified 31 ecological source areas, 65 key ecological corridors, 7 potential ecological corridors, 37 ecological pinch points, and 99 ecological barriers. The overall distribution of ecological sources was scattered, with higher density in the northwest and southeast regions. Ecological corridors were distributed along high mountains, and both ecological sources and corridors were mainly composed of forest land. Based on circuit theory, this study filled the gap in the MCR model’s inability to identify the true width of corridors due to ignoring the randomness of biological migration. It determined the spatial range of ecological corridors and the specific locations of ecological nodes and barriers, providing a reference for solving ecological problems in Xishuangbanna, such as “rainforest fragmentation”.